Vietnam Thailand Durian Export 2026

Based on the available information for 2026, Vietnam's durian export sector is experiencing explosive growth and is mounting a serious challenge to Thailand's long-held dominance, particularly in the critical Chinese market.

Here is a breakdown of the export outlook for both countries in 2026.

🚀 Vietnam: The Challenger on the Rise

Vietnam's durian industry is off to a phenomenal start in 2026, with exports aiming to reach $1 billion in the first quarter alone. The country's strategic advantages are driving this rapid ascent.

• Explosive Growth: In January 2026 alone, durian exports reached over $117.22 million, a spectacular increase of 275% compared to the same period last year. The industry has set an ambitious target of $4-4.5 billion in durian exports for all of 2026.

• Strategic Advantages: Vietnam effectively utilizes its off-season crop (November to March) to supply the market when Thai supply is low. Its proximity to China and shared land border provide significant logistics and cost benefits compared to Thailand. China has also approved over double the number of Vietnamese durian cultivation areas and packing facilities compared to last year, boosting export capacity.

• Market Position: Vietnam has already overtaken Thailand to become the largest supplier of fresh durian by volume to China. In 2025, China imported 940,000 tons of Vietnamese durian, which was more than half of its total fresh durian imports. The country is also a major player in the rapidly growing frozen durian segment, exporting 94,000 tons to China in 2025.

Thailand: The Incumbent Facing Challenges

While still the largest supplier by value to China, Thailand is projected to face a significant oversupply and increased competition in 2026.

• Expected Oversupply: Total durian production is forecast to reach 1.8 million tons, a 21% increase from last year. The government expects a surplus of nearly 190,000 tons over demand. To manage this, authorities have approved measures to boost domestic consumption (targeting 550,000 tons) and exports (targeting 1.2-1.3 million tons).

• Competitive Pressures: Vietnam's off-season supply has directly impacted the market before Thailand's main harvest begins. Furthermore, logistical disruptions are a major hurdle. A border conflict with Cambodia has led to a labor shortage, and the rerouting of shipments via Laos has increased logistics costs.

• Export Performance: Despite pressures, Thailand's exports to China showed a strong rebound in early 2026, growing by 303.57% in the first two months of the year, reaching 113.91 billion baht. The country is still targeting the export of 1.06 million tons of durian in 2026.

🎯 The Battle for the Chinese Market

China remains the ultimate prize, accounting for over 90% of the durian export market for both nations. The competition is defined by a battle between different strengths:

To summarize the 2026 outlook in a few key points:

• Vietnam is gaining significant ground on the back of its logistical advantages and off-season supply.

• Thailand remains a powerful force with a strong brand, but it is challenged by an impending supply glut and operational hurdles.

• The market is increasingly a two-horse race where quality control and adherence to regulations will be the deciding factors for success.

If you're interested in the specific price trends for either country or the frozen durian market, feel free to ask.

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